The user(s) behind the G+ account Singularity 2045 made an appropriately skeptical post today about the latest Machines-versus-Humans “prediction,” specifically an article “What Happens When Artificial Intelligence Turns On Us” about a new book by James Barrat.
As S2045 says:
Don’t believe the hype. It is utter nonsense to think AI or robots would ever turn on humans. It is a good idea to explore in novels, films, or knee-jerk doomsday philosophizing because disaster themes sell well. Thankfully the fiction or speculation will never translate to reality because it is based upon a failure to recognize how technology erodes scarcity. Scarcity is the root of all conflict.
Smithsonian even includes a quote by the equally clueless Eliezer Yudkowsky:
In the longer term, as experts in my book argue, A.I. approaching human-level intelligence won’t be easily controlled; unfortunately, super-intelligence doesn’t imply benevolence. As A.I. theorist Eliezer Yudkowsky of MIRI [the Machine Intelligence Research Institute] puts it, “The A.I. does not love you, nor does it hate you, but you are made of atoms it can use for something else.” If ethics can’t be built into a machine, then we’ll be creating super-intelligent psychopaths, creatures without moral compasses, and we won’t be their masters for long.
In the G+ comments you can see some arguments about the evidence for or against the prediction. I would like to add a couple arguments in support of Singularity 2045’s conclusion (but not necessarily endorsing his specific arguments):
- Despite “future shock” (before Kurzweil and Vinge there was Toffler) from accelerating change in certain avenues, most of these worries about machines-vs-humans battles are so fictional because they assume a discrete transition point: before the machines appeared and after. The only way that could happen is if there was an massive planetary invasion of intelligent robots from another planet. In real life things happen over a period of time with transitions and various arbitrary (e.g. because of politics) diversions and fads…despite any accelerating change.
- We have examples of humans living in partial cooperation and simultaneously partial conflict with other species. Insects outnumber us. Millions of cats and dogs live in human homes and get better treatment than the poor and homeless in the world. Meanwhile, crows and parrots are highly intelligent animals often living in symbiosis with humans…except when they become menaces.
If we’re going to map fiction to reality, Michael Crichton techno-thrillers are a bit closer to real technological disasters, which are local specific incidences resulting from the right mixture of human errors and coincidence (and this happens in real life sometimes for instance nuclear reactor disasters). And sometimes those errors are far apart at first like somebody designing a control panel badly which assists in a bad decision by an operator 10 years later during an emergency.
And of course I’ve already talked about the Us-versus-Them dichotomy and the role of interfaces in human-robot technology in my paper “Would You Still Love Me If I Was A Robot?”
I doubt we will have anything as clear cut as an us-vs-them new species. And if we maintain civilization (e.g. not the anti-gay anti-atheist witch-hunting segments) then new variations would not be segregated / given less rights and vice-versa they would not segregate / remove our human rights.
As far as I know, there is no such thing as a natural species on Earth that “peacefully coexists.” This may be the nature of the system, and that’s certainly easy to see when looking at the evolutionary arms races constantly happening. Anyway my point is that any attempt to appeal to nature or the mythical peaceful caveman is not the right direction. The fact that humans can even imagine never-ending peace and utopia seems to indicate that we have started to surpass nature’s “cold equations.”Tags: future, nature